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Investment Commentary

November 5, 2018

Deficits and Market Churn

By Philip Hergel, Senior Quantitative Analyst

As we proceed through the fourth quarter of 2018 we are experiencing one of the most intense periods of equity volatility since this long bull market began in 2009. There are multiple contributing factors at play including geopolitical tensions, expensive stock valuations, rising interest rates, and trade disputes. Regionally, the European Union experiment is starting to crumble with BREXIT . . . MORE

May 23, 2018

Trends: Automobile Industry & the Electric Vehicle Revolution

By Stig Zarle, Senior Securities Analyst

VIEW VIDEO SUMMARY  This piece is the first in a series of occasional memos to inform our clients of transformative, long-term (secular) themes that we examine as part of our investment process. A secular theme typically starts as a subtle change within a market that gradually gains momentum and plays out over an extended period of time, perhaps decades (think ecommerce, mobile computing, and . . . MORE

March 27, 2018

War! What Is It Good For?

By Philip Hergel, Senior Quantitative Analyst

The classic anti-war song of the 1960s "War" performed by Edwin Starr for Motown records was intended as a protest against military conflict during the war in Vietnam. The singer’s bold and definitive conclusion that war is good for “absolutely nothing” is equally applicable to the misguided policy of trade wars. Yet here we are in the early days of this exact policy blunder, which has been . . . MORE

September 7, 2017

How wise is it to be invested in today’s stock market?

By Robert Brooke Zevin, Chairman, Senior Portfolio Manager

Many people, including a number of our clients, have been concerned in recent weeks that the long stock market rise since 2009 has finally reached unsustainable heights that will soon lead to a crash. Our first priority has always been to avoid or minimize losses in bad markets. Financial markets are always more or less unpredictable and subject to sudden declines. However, we believe the . . . MORE

April 20, 2017

Return of the Dreaded Deadlock?

By Robert Brooke Zevin, Chairman, Senior Portfolio Manager

The primary reason we were optimistic about the outlook for stock markets after the U.S. election was that one party had control of both Congress and the White House, thus hopefully eliminating the plague of Washington deadlock which had crippled President Obama’s policies as well as many previous presidents. Now we are confronting Deadlock 2.0; and it could be even worse than the versions we . . . MORE

January 11, 2017

What Will Happen Next?

By Robert Brooke Zevin, Chairman, Senior Portfolio Manager

Seldom if ever has the pending inauguration of a new American President provided such a bewildering and uncertain array of possible consequences. There are as many areas of danger in Trump’s threats and promises as there are circles of Hell in Dante’s Inferno. For openers, the President-elect has promised to escalate the two most serious threats to the survival of our human species: global . . . MORE