Market Perspectives
Zevin Asset Management
Q3 2024 Market Outlook

Maybe it really is different this time. A typical business cycle usually consists of an overheating economy followed by higher policy rates imposed by central banks. This eventually leads to a slowing economy, and in 6 out of the last 7 monetary tightening episodes in the U.S since 1970, the economy has fallen into recession. Higher lending rates slow consumption, leading to layoffs, which further slows consumption and more layoffs, and so on. However, this cycle has been different so far. When the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022 to fight inflation, the personal consumption response was much more muted than usual, thanks to previous emergency pandemic stimulus. The U.S. economy has slowed somewhat in response to tighter monetary policy, but employers have been mostly reluctant to implement significant layoffs with the fresh and painful memory of the 2020-2021 pandemic reopening when consumer demand rebounded sharply but employers had a hard time finding workers to satisfy demand. So-called “labor hoarding” has become a significant attribute of the current economic cycle, which has contributed to the relative strength in the labor market, consumption, and the economy in general.

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Zevin Gives on Giving Tuesday

For the past five years, the Tuesday following Thanksgiving has been dubbed Giving Tuesday, as an antidote to the more grossly commercial Black Friday and Cyber Monday. While any day is a good day to give to organizations whose missions you believe in, Giving Tuesday acts as an encouragement and a reminder of the impact that can be made through the generosity of individuals and institutions. We wanted to take this opportunity to inform you about just a few of the organizations that Zevin supports, not only today but also throughout the year.