Market Perspectives
Zevin Asset Management
Q3 2024 Market Outlook

Maybe it really is different this time. A typical business cycle usually consists of an overheating economy followed by higher policy rates imposed by central banks. This eventually leads to a slowing economy, and in 6 out of the last 7 monetary tightening episodes in the U.S since 1970, the economy has fallen into recession. Higher lending rates slow consumption, leading to layoffs, which further slows consumption and more layoffs, and so on. However, this cycle has been different so far. When the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022 to fight inflation, the personal consumption response was much more muted than usual, thanks to previous emergency pandemic stimulus. The U.S. economy has slowed somewhat in response to tighter monetary policy, but employers have been mostly reluctant to implement significant layoffs with the fresh and painful memory of the 2020-2021 pandemic reopening when consumer demand rebounded sharply but employers had a hard time finding workers to satisfy demand. So-called “labor hoarding” has become a significant attribute of the current economic cycle, which has contributed to the relative strength in the labor market, consumption, and the economy in general.

Market Perspectives

Coronavirus Market Outlook

Last month we shared our thoughts on the outlook for the global economy and financial markets as the spread of COVID-19 was exploding around the world. Events have continued to unfold at a frenzied pace.  At times like this, it’s important for investors to not overreact, but remain objective and thoughtful, while also being nimble enough to act if conditions warrant action. Zevin Asset Management’s guiding principle has always been to invest in high quality securities that can endure during times like these, in an attempt to minimize major losses in our clients’ portfolios. To that end, we are closely monitoring this global health crisis, the numerous policy responses and financial market reaction, all within our longstanding investment process of assessing the macroeconomic, company and ESG risks.