Market Perspectives
Zevin Asset Management
Q3 2024 Market Outlook

Maybe it really is different this time. A typical business cycle usually consists of an overheating economy followed by higher policy rates imposed by central banks. This eventually leads to a slowing economy, and in 6 out of the last 7 monetary tightening episodes in the U.S since 1970, the economy has fallen into recession. Higher lending rates slow consumption, leading to layoffs, which further slows consumption and more layoffs, and so on. However, this cycle has been different so far. When the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022 to fight inflation, the personal consumption response was much more muted than usual, thanks to previous emergency pandemic stimulus. The U.S. economy has slowed somewhat in response to tighter monetary policy, but employers have been mostly reluctant to implement significant layoffs with the fresh and painful memory of the 2020-2021 pandemic reopening when consumer demand rebounded sharply but employers had a hard time finding workers to satisfy demand. So-called “labor hoarding” has become a significant attribute of the current economic cycle, which has contributed to the relative strength in the labor market, consumption, and the economy in general.

Sonia Kowal

Root Out Impact Washing in Your Portfolio

Time and time again, I am disappointed to see the actively blurred lines between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing, values-aligned investing, and impact. By conflating these concepts, investors who are intent on making a difference with their investments are often misled. Taken in by false promises of the positive change their investments can create, investors can be persuaded by impact washing to allocate assets to products or strategies that do not actively create change.

The Urgency and Disappointment of Investor Action on Russia

At the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Zevin Asset Management Preside Sonia Kowal shared her perspective on the investment community’s role in enabling the crisis and offered solutions on how investors could best support Ukraine moving forward. More than seven months later, her disappointment in investors’ response to the Russian invasion persists.

Zevin Asset Management Weighs in on Russia’s War in Ukraine

Upon Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Zevin Asset Management President Sonia Kowal was quick to share her perspective on the investment community’s role in enabling the crisis, and to offer solutions on how investors could best support Ukraine moving forward. In the weeks since, Sonia, a Ukrainian-American and former Russian-equity analyst, has continued to share her insights on the situation and what investors can do to mitigate further human rights harms. Her commentary has been featured in a number of webinars, podcasts, and interviews on the subject.

The Investor Response to the Russian War in Ukraine

As another needless war unfolds, it’s important to consider how investors have enabled Putin over the years and the lessons to be learned from burying one’s head in the sand.  

His invasion of Georgia in 2008 and then of Crimea in 2014 should have been early warning signs for asset owners and managers. Yet many responded with yawns and shrugs over the years, prioritizing profit over values by choosing to stay invested. I understand this more than most, as an ex-Russian equity analyst who saw up close the potential for making gobs of money by investing in Russian-owned businesses. On Feb. 24, when Putin invaded Ukraine again, those that remained invested had no excuse.